By the Secret Psychic Spy ([email protected])
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $744.18
Last week (Aug 8): 3/5 Overall 75/134 (56%)
Back on the winning track last time out, with a slight profit at the UFC Nashville event. This weekend, the Octagon is in Saskatoon, SK and there’s a lot of Canada vs the World on this card. In fact three of my picks are from the Great White North. Here’s the five picks on the card that I think have the best value. I’d also highly recommend if you like props to bet on the Magny/Silva and Krylov/de Lima fights not going to the judges.
Pick 1 – Nikita Krylov (18-4) +125 over Rodrigo de Lima (13-2-1) I’m betting $100 to win $125
Both of these guys are former heavyweights who’ve moved down a weight class. Both are knockout artists whose UFC fights have never gone the distance. I like Krylov here as he’s faced a slightly higher level of competition, with his UFC losses coming to huge heavyweight Soa Paleli and top 205 lb contender Ovince St Preux.
Pick 2 – Sam Stout (20-11-1) -115 over Frankie Perez (9-2) I’m betting $100 to win $86.96
This fight is basically a pick ‘em and I really like Stout to go into the fountain of youth and grind out a decision win. Despite his reputation for one punch power, “Hands of Stone” usually wins by decision and that’s what I think he does here. Perez lost his only UFC fight to non-contender Johnny Case and he’ll go 0-2 here.
Pick 3 – Maryna Moroz (6-0) -190 over Valerie Letourneau (7-3) I’m betting $100 to win $52.63
Moroz had a spectacular UFC debut earlier this year, destroying Joanne Calderwood, who was thought to be a title contender. She may be the only person in the 115 lb division who can match champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the striking department. Letourneau has looked good so far in her UFC career but I think the gets blitzed by the Ukranian “Iron Woman” here.
Pick 4 – Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1) -245 over Tony Sims (12-2) I’m betting $100 to win $40.82
Aubin-Mercier has been very impressive since losing the TUF Nations final match to Chad Laprise (who also fights on this card). He’s submitted both of his opponents and looked really good in doing so. The Tri-Star product, who many have compared to legendary Welterweight Champion George St. Pierre, should make quick work of the debuting Sims here.
Pick 5 – Max Holloway (13-3) -240 over Charles Oliveira (20-4) I’m betting $100 to win $41.67
For any of you out there who will be watching SummerSlam instead of this card, it should be over before the time these two hit the cage for the main event. It’s worth making time to watch this as this should be a hell of a fight. Both are future potential contenders for whomever emerges from the Jose Aldo/Conor McGregor fight in December and are both riding impressive win streaks. I like Holloway here as he’s the younger fighter, who’s constantly improving. Remember that he took Conor to the limit in the Irishman’s UFC debut and has rung up 6 straight wins since that defeat. He should run the streak to 7 in winning his first UFC main event.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $347.07
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Current Standings:
Ryan Frederick: $1,082.53 (Picked Watson, Aguilar, Eye, Leites, Lawler, Gordon, Hein, Alvarez, Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $1,470.18 (Picked Salazar, Bruno, Duke, Rivera, Samman, Bosse, Amirkhani, Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
We both lost last week, so I retain my lead. This week, I like Stout at close to even money (-115) and should retain my lead no matter who young Ryan picks.
Ryan’s pick:
I’m going Charles Oliveira +200 over Max Holloway
I’m surprised the odds are as long as they are now. I see this fight as more of a pick ’em. Both are extremely young and talented, but I do think Oliveira has more raw ability right now. Holloway has been impressive and has power and Oliveira can mentally break. Oliveira’s last fight against Nik Lentz really impressed me how he was able to come back in that fight. I see him doing the same and submitting Holloway in the later half of the fight.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and remember, don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and try to have fun with it!
–