Avoiding global climate chaos will require a major transformation of society and the world economy that is "unprecedented in scale," the UN said on Monday in a landmark report that warns time is running out to avert disaster.
Earth’s surface has warmed one degree Celsius – enough to lift oceans and unleash a crescendo of deadly storms, floods and droughts – and is on track towards an unliveable 3C or 4C rise.
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, we could pass the 1.5C marker as early as 2030, and no later than mid-century, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) reported with "high confidence".
"The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it," said Amjad Abdulla, the IPCC board member and chief negotiator for the alliance of small island states.
"Historians will look back at these findings as one of the defining moments in the course of human affairs."
A Summary for Policymakers of the 400-page tome underscores how quickly global warming has outstripped humanity’s attempt to tame it, and outlines paradigm-shift options for avoiding the worst ravages of a climate-addled future.
Before the Paris Agreement was inked in 2015, nearly a decade of scientific research rested on the assumption that 2C was the guardrail for a climate-safe world.
The IPCC report, however, shows that global warming impacts have come sooner and hit harder than predicted.
"Things that scientists have been saying would happen further in the future are happening now," Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International, told AFP.
To have at least a 50/50 chance of staying under the 1.5C cap without overshooting the mark, the world must, by 2050, become "carbon neutral," according to the report.
"That means every tonne of CO2 we put into the atmosphere will have to be balanced by a tonne of CO2 taken out," said lead coordinating author Myles Allen, head of the University of Oxford’s Climate Research Programme.
Drawing from more than 6,000 recent scientific studies, the report laid out four "illustrative" pathways to that goal.
The most ambitious would see a radical drawdown in energy consumption coupled with a rapid shift away from fossil fuels and a swift decline in CO2 emissions starting in 2020. It would also avoid an "overshoot" of the 1.5C threshold.
A contrasting "pay later" scenario compensates for a high-consumption lifestyles and continued use of fossil fuels with a temporary breaching of the 1.5C ceiling.
It depends heavily on the use of biofuels. But the scheme would need to plant an area twice the size of India in biofuel crops, and assumes that some 1,200 billion tonnes of CO2 – 30 years’ worth of emissions at current rates – can be safely stocked away underground.
"Is it fair for the next generation to pay to take the CO2 out of the atmosphere that we are now putting into it?", asked Allen. "We have to start having that debate."
The stakes are especially high for small island states, developing nations in the tropics, and countries with densely-populated delta regions already suffering from rising seas.
Limiting global warming to 1.5C comes with a hefty price tag: some $2.4 trillion (2.1 trillion euros) of investments in the global energy system every year between 2016 and 2035, or about 2.5 percent of world GDP.
That amount, however, must be weighed against the even steeper cost of inaction, the report says.
The path to a climate-safe world has become a tightrope, and will require an unprecedented marshalling of human ingenuity, the authors said.
"The problem isn’t going to be solved with a silver bullet," Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, told AFP. "We need a hail of silver bullets."
The IPCC report was timed to feed into the December UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland, where world leaders will be under pressure to ramp up national carbon-cutting pledges.
Matthew Spencer, Oxfam’s director of campaigns and policy said: "Climate change has set our planet on fire, millions of people are already feeling the impacts, and the IPCC is clear that things could get much worse without immediate action.
"The faster governments phase out coal, embrace the renewable energy revolution and move to protect communities at risk, the more lives and livelihoods will be spared."
He warned the world was already seeing the beginning of "massive displacement and a shocking rise in hunger" – and unless temperatures stayed below 1.5C, island nations would disappear beneath rising seas.
Rachel Kennerley, climate campaigner for Friends of the Earth, said: "Just like ignoring credit card statements so that repayments only become sharper and steeper, this report shows that weak responses will make it harder in the long-run.
"Right now it’s difficult, but not impossible, to contain climate chaos, but the window of opportunity will close for good the longer we delay."
She warned the predicted loss of all coral reefs if governments could not contain warming would mean a massive loss of fish that people rely on for food and costing lives and livelihoods.
She said: "That is the kind of reality we must face if governments don’t take notice of this report."