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Well, that was quick.
As quick as there were weekend rejections of Republican nominee Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE from GOP elites, there was a fast conservative grassroots embrace of the real estate mogul. Eagerly filed news reports of a party-wide implosion in the wake of Trump’s bantering and brutish 2005 hot mic moment (along with revelations of other garish “The Apprentice” show archives) were premature.
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By Tuesday it became tragicomically apparent that the Republican nominee could have been caught, arrested and mug-shot for child molestation and still maintain the eternal, undying support of most Republican voters. And that’s not really as morbidly funny as it sounds: A federal lawsuit filed by “Jane Doe” claiming Trump raped her in 1997 at the age of 13 just moved into the pre-trial phase.
Trump’s campaign, however, need not worry — at least, not politically. Obviously, he’s no Bill Cosby. The full trappings of white male privilege afford him the undying rationalizations of esteemed Republican men and women (many with daughters), and a mainstream media complex craving for an interview and ratings fix like a heroin addict cooking a spoon. Hence, the extent of any horrific sexual transgressions are limited to the “locker-room talk” and trivialization.
Lip-bubbling media outrage and disgust was near unanimous through Cosby’s summer-long perp walk; with Trump, it’s all preelection gawking and the admiration of adoring pitchfork-brandishing fans.
It’s safe to assume Nate Parker’s “Birth of a Nation” won’t get an Oscar; but threre are award accolades galore for Woody Allen despite years of molestation allegations, and the same for Roman Polanski, the filmmaking “legend” despite pleading guilty to (and then fleeing) charges that he brutally raped a 13-year-old girl. Julian Assange still faces rape allegations and unresolved extradition requests from Swedish authorities, but the Russian-espionage tool is a mythical hero for the conspiracy-theorizing right-wingers and rabid Bernie Sandernistas who claim Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE stole the election.
The sad, gruesome tale of innocently whistling Emmett Till can offer insight into this phenomenon of dangerously employed racial imbalances when it relates to the mistreatment, perceived or actual, of white women. By no means are we comparing an innocent and victimized Till to the murky pasts of Cosby and Parker, but there’s some shared context when examining racial response. That’s another full discussion.
But we can frankly assume that in this case, Trump will for the most part get this bathroom pass from others all the way through to Election Day. Evangelicals seem amazingly satisfied with their own moral turpitude in defending a man who openly Yelps his daughter’s bodily definitions. Even as the man brags about federal tax evasion and owning mastery of the Wall Street dark arts his populist supporters claim to abhor, he’s relatively untouchable.
None of this is really all that surprising. Fretting over a rapid browning of America, border walls must be built. Supreme Court vacancies must be filled with Scalian disciples. Unruly black millennials, along with their grumpy parents and never-forgetful grandparents, must be quickly put in place with police-state precision.
If this all ends up like a life-size version of “The Purge” franchise, there’s an anxiously white segment of the population that doesn’t really care so long as they can pledge allegiance to their flag and happily tailgate without interruption. It’s not about “Making America Great Again.” It’s about regaining what is viewed as lost control.
Republican National Comittee Chair Reince Priebus’s less-than-48-hour post-tape release declaration that the party would stand by its man was all the signal needed to show that Republican voters would rather let the country spiral into chaos than let their mafia collapse under the weight of disunity.
While the moral compass is completely absent, you can’t throw too much shade at Priebus for the strategy — it’s the dirty work a party chair is handpicked to do, suicidal samurai instructions included. Priebus’s loyalty is to the party, the job of governance and national spirit (or, whatever …) being left to corruptible have-it-both-ways politicians like fellow Wisconsin homey House Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanBush, Romney won’t support Trump reelection: NYT Twitter joins Democrats to boost mail-in voting — here’s why Lobbying world MORE (R-Wis.).
There are political openings for Republicans at every turn. Priebus and Ryan have masterfully grasped this in ways their peers have not. This is still a very partisan, very tight election. Folks should stop acting as if it’s wrapped up already. Politico, NBC/Wall Street and YouGov polls show a Republican electorate barely rattled by the videotape of their nominee hornily eye-groping a soap opera starlet. Only 43 percent of Americans believe he should drop out of the race, according to a day-after ABC News poll; a majority think not (making us wonder if that’s a disturbing, Bradley Effectuating sign of future voting outcomes).
In many respects, the reports of Republican demise have been grossly exaggerated. For all the clownishness that’s transpired these past several days, Clinton’s average 6-point lead is way too slim to victory lap about. Remarkably, despite ample opportunity, she fails at impressively knocking Trump out during recent debates, even when she wins by technical — and it shows in polling.
It’s really not a tough gamble for Republican brass, particularly Priebus or Ryan. Should Trump lose, few worries: The RNC chair saves face and party by using that massive haul of Trump fundraising for tight GOP Senate races and any House races where Republicans are vulnerable or Democratic incumbents can be plucked. Keeping both the House and Senate through 2018 ensures enough GOP blockading to severely cripple a Clinton presidency and potentially ensure a first term for current VP nominee Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PencePence posts, deletes photo of Trump campaign staff without face masks, not social distancing Pence threatens to deploy military if Pennsylvania governor doesn’t quell looting Pence on Floyd: ‘No tolerance for racism’ in US MORE in 2020.
Should Trump win, even better: The GOP gets an iron-fisted governing trifecta, plus a rubber-stamping Supreme Court. Should the electorate get fed up with one Trump term, there’s always impeachment and the entrance of Pence as savior. Should voters give the House, Senate and White House back to Democrats in 2020, conservatives will feel content enough that they managed to install a lifetime Supreme Court appointment or two to their liking.
Republicans are still seeing a bit of light at the end of this tunnel, even if it just collapsed around the rest of us.
Ellison is a veteran political strategist and frequent contributor to The Hill. He is also contributing editor to The Root, Washington correspondent for The Philadelphia Tribune and the Weekly Washington Insider for WDAS-FM (Philadelphia). He is also host of “The Ellison Report,” a weekly public affairs magazine broadcast and podcast on WEAA 88.9 FM (Baltimore). He can be reached @ellisonreport.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.