This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at [email protected] and Max at [email protected]. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up.
We’re 25 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 753 days until the 2020 elections.
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In a year of record Democratic fundraising, Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D-Texas) stands out. His campaign raised $38.1 million in the third quarter, he said Friday, a staggering amount that compares to top-tier presidential campaigns.
Let’s put O’Rourke’s mammoth haul in context: $38.1 million in a quarter is $12.7 million per month, $3.17 million a week, and an average of $423,000 raised for every day of the third quarter. O’Rourke’s campaign hauled in $17,638 every hour, or $293 per minute.
The O’Rourke campaign raised more in the last three months than Sens. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioHillicon Valley: Georgia officials launch investigation after election day chaos | Senate report finds Chinese telecom groups operated in US without proper oversight Republican Senators ask FCC to ‘clearly define’ when social media platforms should receive liability protections Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash MORE (R-Fla.), Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeyGOP senators push for quick, partial reopening of economy NSA improperly collected US phone records in October, new documents show Overnight Defense: Pick for South Korean envoy splits with Trump on nuclear threat | McCain blasts move to suspend Korean military exercises | White House defends Trump salute of North Korean general MORE (R-Pa.), Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Republicans release newly declassified intelligence document on FBI source Steele Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos MORE (R-Wis.) and Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanSenate subcommittee: IRS should increase oversight of tax-prep companies in Free File program Senate report: Chinese telecom firms operated in US without proper oversight for decades GOP’s Obama-era probes fuel Senate angst MORE (R-Ohio) did in the entirety of their 2016 races for re-election. O’Rourke raised more than Sen. Maggie HassanMargaret (Maggie) HassanExclusive investigation on the coronavirus pandemic: Where was Congress? GOP votes to give chairman authority to subpoena Obama officials Senators ask DeVos to adjust FAFSA form due to the coronavirus pandemic MORE (D-N.H.) and former Sen. Kelly AyotteKelly Ann AyotteBottom line Bottom line Bottom Line MORE (R-N.H.) did in their epic showdown two years ago — combined. He raised more in one quarter than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) raised during his entire 2016 presidential campaign (not including Bush’s super PAC).
All that for a candidate who has never led a public poll against his rival, Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R).
Siena College pegs Cruz’s lead at eight points, in a survey taken this week for the New York Times. Quinnipiac has Cruz up nine. Emerson College, the poll that shows Cruz’s edge the narrowest, has the Republican ahead by five points.
Democratic donors have poured money into both Senate and House candidates across the country in the last three months. Ahead of Monday’s Federal Election Commission filing deadline, Democratic candidates running for Senate seats in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada have all reported raising at least $6 million.
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But there’s one more impressive haul to consider. The candidate who pulled in more money than anyone except O’Rourke: Rafael Edward Cruz.
–Reid Wilson
Senate showdown
Vulnerable Senate Democrats facing reelection this year will get some valuable campaign time, The Washington Post reports. But it comes at a price: confirming 15 of President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s judicial nominees. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.) had previously threatened to hold the Senate in session until Election Day unless they agreed to vote on the judges.
Natural disasters typically yield calls for bipartisanship and political ceasefires. But in Florida’s closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races, Hurricane Michael has given way to politicking. Some political groups ignored long-standing precedent and continued airing attack ads against candidates as the storm bore down on Florida Wednesday. And candidates are also seizing on the hurricane to prove their leadership chops ahead of election day.
Survey says…
The race for Florida’s 27th District is heating up, with Republican Maria Elvira Salazar leading Democratic Candidate Donna Shalala by two percentage points, according to the latest Mason Dixon-Telemundo 51 poll. A well-known figure in the community thanks to her time working for Spanish-language Telemundo, Salazar is a formidable Republican challenger in a district that Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails Democrat challenger Tony Evers by 10 points in his reelection bid, according to the latest NBC/Marist poll. President Trump’s net-negative approval rating in the state may prove to be Walker’s downfall thanks to the president’s early endorsement of his campaign back in August.
Republican Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by less than one point in Georgia’s gubernatorial race, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 News poll. The poll provides a margin of error of 2.8 points, giving Abrams and Kemp a statistical tie with less than a month left before Election Day.
Paper chase
Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson recently added tens of millions of dollars to GOP super PACs Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), Politico reports. Adelson has already given $55 million to the two groups in the lead-up to midterms. With his latest contributions, he will be the largest GOP donor in the 2018 election cycle.
Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Senate panel passes amendment to bar using troops against protesters Defense bill turns into proxy battle over Floyd protests MORE (D-Va.) reported raising more than $2.4 million between July and August, bringing his total cash on hand to a little more than $5 million. So far, he’s raised more than $20 million in the 2018 cycle, his campaign said. He’s facing a challenge from Republican Corey Stewart and is expected to easily coast to a second term in the Senate in November.
What we’re watching for
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Senate Debate schedule:
–Friday night debate in Wisconsin
–Sunday night debates in Ohio and Michigan
Trump rally schedule:
–Friday rally in Lebanon, Ohio at 7 p.m. ET
–Saturday rally in Richmond, Ky. at 7 p.m. ET
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Coming to a TV near you
VoteVets, a progressive veterans advocacy group, is dropping $4 million on a new ad accusing Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) of “defrauding the military’s health care program” during his tenure as the CEO of health care conglomerate Columbia/HCA. The ad also goes after Scott for frequently wearing a Navy hat. “Governor, this hat represents what the Navy stands for: Honor, integrity,” a man, identified as Navy veteran Alan Madison, says in the spot. “My question for you, sir? Where’s yours?”
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is launching new ads in three competitive districts in New York, Minnesota and Nevada.
In New York’s 19th District, the group is attacking Democrat Antonio Delgado, accusing him of supporting massive tax hikes and a “radical government takeover of health care.” Delgado is locked in a tight race with incumbent Rep. John FasoJohn James FasoThe most expensive congressional races of the last decade The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority GOP House super PAC targets two freshman Dems with new ads MORE (R-N.Y.).
The NRCC is airing another spot in Minnesota’s 1st District going after Democrat Dan Feehan for supporting former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick‘s decision to kneel during the National Anthem. “Tell Dan Feehan, real patriots stand together,” a narrator says in the ad. Feehan is a former captain in the Army who served two combat tours in Iraq.
And in Nevada’s 4th District, the NRCC is accusing former Rep. Steven HorsfordSteven Alexander HorsfordRep. Steven Horsford wins Democratic House primary in Nevada Overnight Defense: Army now willing to rename bases named after Confederates | Dems demand answers on ‘unfathomable’ nuke testing discussions | Pentagon confirms death of north African al Qaeda leader Top Democrats demand answers on Trump administration’s ‘unfathomable’ consideration of nuclear testing MORE (D-Nev.) of pay-to-play politics. “Steven Horsford makes government work for himself,” a narrator says in the spot. Horsford is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ruben KihuenRuben Jesus KihuenRep. Steven Horsford wins Democratic House primary in Nevada Members spar over sexual harassment training deadline Nevada Dem sanctioned for sexual misconduct announces city council bid MORE (D-Nev.) and faces a challenge from former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Nev.).
Wave watch
Republican groups are withdrawing funding from some underperforming and vulnerable incumbents, The New York Times reports. They’re looking to concentrate their resources in fewer districts where they believe they can stave off Democratic advances. The goal, the newspaper reports, is to try to limit Democratic gains to 20 seats – three short of the 23 the party need to retake control of the House.
March for Our Lives, the gun safety group founded by survivors of the deadly mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., is launching a 12-day tour ahead of Election Day. The tour will take the group to 12 cities across seven states, and will focus on voter registration and engagement efforts, the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Race for the White House
The midterms may be the center of attention. But outside groups are already spending millions to boost Trump‘s reelection bid. McClatchy DC reports that at least six groups have already spent more than $9 million on television, mail, phone and online efforts to promote the president’s 2020 campaign.
Former first lady Michelle ObamaMichelle LeVaughn Robinson ObamaThe Hill’s Morning Report – Treasury, Fed urge more spending, lending to ease COVID-19 wreckage Budowsky: Michelle Obama or Tammy Duckworth for VP Michelle Obama urges class of 2020 to couple protesting with mobilizing, voting MORE is a rock star among Democrats. Even after moving out of the White House, she remains incredibly popular and she’s set to expand her profile even more with an upcoming book tour. But don’t expect her to launch a bid for the White House, The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Judy Kurtz report. “She has always said ‘hell no,’ and she means ‘hell no,’ ” one former Obama White House aide said.
In case you missed it
In Georgia’s hotly contested governor’s race, the Abrams campaign is calling on Kemp to resign from his post as Georgia secretary of State. That comes after a report from The Associated Press that more than 53,000 voter registration applications — 70 percent of them from black voters — are on hold after failing to meet the state’s “exact match” law. That law marks applications as “pending” if their personal information on voter registration forms doesn’t match information on federal databases.
Abrams and Democrats argue that the policy suppresses minority votes. Her campaign called on Kemp’s office to stop using the “exact match” law and resign from his position.
But Kemp and his campaign are pushing back, saying that Democrats are playing politics. They say that everyone marked as “pending” will be able to vote and can resolve those issues at polling locations or at least cast a provisional ballot.
“This is not complicated. Every person on the ‘pending’ list – if they are real and qualified – can vote at their polling precinct early or on Election Day,” Ryan Mahoney, Kemp’s spokesman, said in a statement to The Hill. “Stacey Abrams is either intentionally misleading Georgia voters or simply does not understand how voting works in our state. Clearly, she is unfit to be governor.”
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